按揭利率將跌破五厘

美 國 聯 邦 儲 備 局 又 再 減 息 半 厘 ， 估 計 周 五 香 港 的 銀 行 公 會 議 息 時 一 定 跟 隨 ， 本 港 的 優 惠 利 率 將 由 七 厘 半 減 至 七 厘 。 以 目 前 按 揭 利 率 普 遍 比 優 惠 利 率 低 二 厘 二 五 計 ， 按 揭 利 率 將 跌 至 四 厘 七 五 ， 為 香 港 歷 史 上 罕 見 。 上 次 減 息 對 樓 市 的 刺 激 非 常 有 限 ， 樓 價 依 然 在 低 處 徘 徊 ， 連 交 投 也 不 見 有 所 增 加 ， 所 以 市 場 對 今 次 減 息 沒 有 太 大 的 期 望 ， 主 要 的 發 展 商 都 沒 有 事 先 安 排 好 ， 借 減 息 去 推 出 新 盤 。 
然 而 ， 我 不 認 為 我 們 應 該 完 全 抹 煞 減 息 的 作 用 ， 因 為 減 息 對 用 家 和 投 資 者 都 有 實 質 的 影 響 ， 這 些 影 響 即 使 在 今 天 沒 發 揮 主 導 作 用 ， 但 它 一 定 會 潛 移 默 化 ， 去 到 一 定 的 程 度 就 會 找 機 會 表 現 出 來 。 
減 息 的 作 用 短 期 不 明 顯 ， 是 因 為 目 前 市 場 關 注 的 重 點 不 在 息 口 上 ， 人 們 並 非 因 為 息 口 高 而 不 賣 樓 ， 當 然 亦 不 會 因 為 一 減 息 就 蜂 擁 出 來 買 樓 。 
地 產 代 理 為 促 銷 樓 盤 ， 常 說 現 時 供 樓 負 擔 已 輕 過 租 樓 負 擔 ， 但 他 們 是 以 貸 款 七 成 作 計 算 基 礎 的 ， 三 成 首 期 的 利 息 成 本 他 們 是 不 計 算 的 。 如 果 買 家 要 作 九 成 貸 款 ， 那 每 月 的 供 款 就 會 超 過 每 月 租 金 。 因 此 ， 現 時 並 未 真 正 出 現 供 樓 比 租 樓 化 算 的 情 況 。 
要 供 樓 的 利 息 支 出 與 租 樓 的 負 擔 取 得 平 衡 ， 按 揭 利 率 起 碼 還 要 下 跌 四 分 三 厘 。 因 為 目 前 的 租 金 回 報 率 普 遍 只 有 四 厘 ， 今 次 銀 行 跟 美 國 減 息 後 ， 按 揭 利 率 仍 要 四 厘 七 五 ， 仍 比 租 金 回 報 率 高 四 分 三 厘 。 
因 此 ， 要 使 租 樓 者 真 的 因 為 經 濟 負 擔 的 因 素 而 選 擇 買 樓 ， 按 揭 利 息 還 得 再 跌 多 四 分 之 三 厘 。 四 分 三 厘 並 不 是 一 個 很 大 的 差 距 ， 今 年 下 半 年 之 內 達 到 也 不 出 奇 。 故 現 時 每 減 一 次 息 都 向 這 條 界 線 移 近 了 一 步 ， 不 能 因 為 市 場 對 減 息 一 時 未 有 反 應 就 說 減 息 對 樓 市 沒 有 作 用 。