圓底更似復甦

樓 市 週 期 的 特 色 一 向 都 是 尖 頂 圓 底 ， 危 機 一 旦 爆 發 ， 樓 價 就 急 轉 直 下 ， 在 下 跌 的 過 程 中 雖 間 會 出 現 劇 烈 的 反 彈 ， 但 這 類 反 彈 多 是 技 術 性 ， 到 反 彈 乏 力 時 ， 樓 價 又 會 再 度 下 跌 ， 而 且 跌 穿 上 次 反 彈 時 的 低 位 ， 形 成 一 浪 低 過 一 浪 的 走 勢 。 九 八 年 春 的 小 陽 春 就 是 一 次 典 型 的 反 彈 ， 其 後 九 九 年 春 及 二 零 零 零 年 春 都 出 現 過 技 術 性 反 彈 ， 但 都 是 一 次 比 一 次 乏 力 ， 一 如 皮 球 從 高 處 掉 下 ， 反 彈 的 力 度 一 次 比 一 次 少 一 樣 ， 直 至 彈 不 起 只 能 滾 動 一 樣 。 樓 價 自 五 月 底 止 跌 回 穩 後 ， 基 本 上 已 彈 不 起 身 ， 至 今 仍 在 低 位 爭 持 ， 沒 有 太 明 顯 的 升 勢 。 但 我 卻 很 樂 於 看 到 這 樣 的 情 況 ， 因 為 這 更 符 合 樓 市 尖 頂 圓 底 的 週 期 性 走 勢 。 如 果 今 次 的 底 又 是 尖 的 ， 這 可 能 只 屬 另 一 次 技 術 性 反 彈 ， 原 因 是 短 時 間 裏 跌 幅 太 大 ， 在 那 一 剎 那 是 跌 過 份 了 ， 所 以 才 出 現 技 術 性 反 彈 ， 不 一 定 是 見 底 。 但 今 次 的 底 是 平 的 ， 沒 有 急 速 的 反 彈 ， 可 能 正 顯 示 今 次 樓 價 真 的 跌 近 底 線 了 ， 想 跌 也 跌 不 下 去 了 。 
樓 市 出 現 技 術 性 反 彈 ， 除 了 因 為 短 時 間 裏 跌 得 過 多 外 ， 還 因 為 在 跌 市 初 段 市 場 上 尚 有 一 些 死 不 信 邪 且 力 量 尚 未 完 全 消 耗 的 炒 家 ， 他 們 時 不 時 又 想 出 來 興 風 作 浪 ， 無 奈 時 不 與 炒 家 ， 他 們 每 出 動 一 次 ， 就 損 兵 折 將 一 次 ， 結 果 全 軍 盡 默 。 我 相 信 ， 到 今 次 尚 有 意 在 地 產 市 場 投 機 的 炒 家 一 定 所 餘 無 幾 ， 如 果 在 這 樣 的 情 況 下 樓 市 仍 站 得 住 腳 的 話 ， 支 持 樓 市 的 力 量 一 定 來 自 用 家 。 即 樓 價 跌 至 這 個 水 平 ， 已 能 吸 引 用 家 出 來 支 持 ， 再 下 跌 的 空 間 應 不 多 了 。 
當 前 香 港 的 整 體 經 濟 正 在 轉 強 ， 不 少 公 司 已 開 始 盈 利 ， 並 對 外 宣 布 會 擴 充 業 務 ， 及 適 量 提 高 工 資 ， 相 信 未 來 人 們 對 自 己 的 工 作 職 位 穩 定 性 ， 及 對 工 資 趨 勢 ， 一 定 抱 有 更 大 的 信 心 ， 入 市 買 樓 的 意 欲 一 定 會 較 高 。 因 此 ， 我 估 計 樓 市 今 次 是 真 的 見 底 了 ， 後 市 應 會 穩 步 上 揚 ， 幅 度 雖 然 不 多 ， 但 交 投 量 應 會 逐 有 增 加 ， 市 道 最 差 的 日 子 應 已 過 去 。