救市要靠通脹

非 典 肺 炎 的 疫 情 近 日 已 逐 漸 減 輕 ， 社 會 的 正 常 活 動 亦 在 日 漸 恢 復 ， 消 費 市 場 的 生 意 已 回 升 得 七 七 八 八 ， 地 產 市 場 的 交 投 量 ， 比 起 最 差 的 日 子 ， 亦 反 彈 了 百 分 之 四 十 ， 但 反 彈 的 強 度 似 乎 正 在 減 弱 ， 看 來 ， 今 次 反 彈 只 是 事 件 性 的 ， 反 彈 完 成 後 ， 樓 市 又 會 受 制 於 社 會 原 先 的 基 本 因 素 ， 反 彈 若 能 恢 復 至 疫 症 爆 發 前 的 水 平 已 屬 不 錯 ， 很 難 期 望 樓 市 會 因 此 重 拾 上 升 軌 。 
當 前 香 港 最 大 的 問 題 是 內 部 需 求 不 足 ， 引 全 通 貨 收 縮 ， 而 通 縮 又 進 一 步 打 擊 內 需 ， 以 至 落 入 惡 性 循 環 系 統 ， 無 法 跳 得 出 來 。 
面 對 這 樣 的 情 況 ， 可 以 有 兩 種 取 態 ： 一 種 是 視 此 為 經 濟 循 環 的 必 經 之 路 ， 政 府 無 謂 出 手 干 預 ， 任 由 通 縮 惡 化 下 去 ， 終 有 一 天 物 極 必 反 ， 經 濟 會 從 低 位 復 甦 ， 市 民 積 累 過 剩 時 ， 又 會 擔 心 人 人 都 有 錢 ， 錢 會 越 來 越 失 去 購 買 力 ， 於 是 四 出 消 費 ， 通 脹 重 臨 ， 資 產 值 回 升 。 但 這 個 過 程 將 非 常 漫 長 ， 日 本 已 通 縮 了 超 過 十 年 ， 至 今 未 有 起 色 ， 香 港 人 似 乎 更 乏 耐 性 。 
另 一 種 取 態 是 由 政 府 出 手 ， 利 用 政 府 手 上 的 資 源 以 及 各 種 政 策 上 的 配 合 ， 去 剌 激 通 脹 ， 希 望 無 需 等 到 衰 到 盡 頭 才 折 返 。 
香 港 的 傳 媒 及 意 見 領 袖 其 實 很 矛 盾 ， 政 府 不 手 出 ， 他 們 就 批 評 政 府 無 能 ， 不 顧 人 民 死 活 ； 政 府 一 手 出 ， 他 們 又 批 評 政 府 干 預 市 場 ， 無 視 經 濟 規 律 ， 注 定 沒 有 好 結 果 ， 嚇 到 政 府 無 功 而 退 。 
依 我 意 見 ， 香 港 這 麼 細 的 經 濟 規 模 ， 在 整 個 環 球 經 濟 體 系 裏 面 ， 只 能 被 人 左 右 ， 休 想 左 右 別 人 ， 自 己 怎 樣 決 定 都 不 管 事 ， 一 定 要 跟 著 龍 頭 大 哥 去 配 合 。 如 果 美 國 決 定 讓 世 界 進 入 通 縮 ， 我 們 也 逃 不 出 繼 續 通 縮 的 命 運 。 如 果 美 國 想 剌 激 通 脹 重 臨 ， 我 們 採 取 同 一 政 策 ， 一 定 事 半 功 倍 。 
美 國 政 府 任 由 房 地 產 出 現 泡 沫 ， 任 由 美 元 轉 弱 ， 又 暗 示 再 會 減 息 ， 這 一 切 都 是 剌 激 通 脹 的 措 施 ， 香 港 不 宜 與 美 國 對 著 幹 ， 不 如 齊 齊 設 法 製 造 通 脹 ， 令 存 錢 於 銀 行 沒 有 著 數 ， 錢 唔 使 遲 早 會 貶 值 ， 那 就 一 定 可 以 剌 激 內 需 ， 本 土 經 濟 就 會 再 次 蓬 勃 起 來 。