一手市場迅速恢復

 非 典 型 肺 炎 在 社 區 爆 發 後 ， 市 民 為 了 安 全 計 盡 量 少 與 人 接 觸 ， 以 至 出 來 市 場 搵 樓 的 人 大 幅 減 少 ， 樓 宇 的 交 投 量 減 少 了 接 近 一 半 。 面 對 這 種 形 勢 ， 發 展 商 一 時 亦 不 知 所 措 ， 唯 有 靜 觀 其 變 。 
由 於 發 展 商 舉 棋 未 定 ， 市 場 的 注 意 力 一 度 重 回 二 手 市 場 。 原 因 是 部 分 二 手 市 場 的 小 業 主 出 現 恐 懼 性 拋 售 ， 但 求 套 現 ， 不 惜 代 價 ， 結 果 造 成 了 一 些 指 標 性 的 成 交 。 
發 展 商 開 始 察 覺 ， 原 來 並 非 所 有 的 人 都 會 因 肺 炎 事 件 而 延 後 自 己 買 樓 的 決 定 。 經 過 一 個 月 的 非 理 性 恐 懼 後 ， 香 港 人 已 明 白 ， 應 該 避 免 接 觸 的 ， 只 有 兩 類 人 ： 第 一 類 當 然 是 已 證 實 已 感 染 非 典 型 肺 炎 的 人 ， 第 二 類 是 與 第 一 類 人 有 親 密 接 觸 同 住 一 室 的 家 人 。 政 府 已 對 這 兩 類 人 採 取 隔 離 政 策 ， 故 適 當 的 小 心 保 健 已 經 足 夠 ， 無 須 對 所 有 的 人 都 自 我 隔 離 ， 因 為 如 此 下 去 ， 整 個 香 港 都 會 停 頓 ， 要 死 的 人 可 能 更 多 。 
因 為 ， 當 一 個 社 會 的 正 常 活 動 都 進 入 半 停 頓 狀 態 後 ， 經 濟 一 定 會 大 幅 衰 退 ， 大 量 公 司 會 被 逼 結 業 ， 失 業 率 必 會 大 幅 上 升 ， 所 謂 貧 賤 夫 妻 百 事 哀 ， 家 庭 矛 盾 必 然 激 發 ， 虐 妻 、 虐 兒 、 以 至 燒 炭 事 件 會 隨 即 增 加 ， 香 港 人 真 是 唔 病 都 死 。 
社 會 上 的 人 有 見 及 此 ， 已 逐 漸 明 白 ， 我 們 不 能 因 為 非 典 型 肺 炎 事 件 而 把 所 有 活 動 都 停 頓 下 來 ， 所 以 復 活 節 假 期 後 ， 中 學 及 大 學 已 復 課 ， 社 會 生 活 逐 步 正 常 化 。 
因 此 ， 過 去 幾 天 發 展 商 取 態 又 見 積 極 。 所 謂 積 極 ， 不 外 是 勇 於 按 二 手 市 場 的 新 的 指 標 價 進 一 步 調 低 新 盤 的 訂 價 ， 而 市 場 的 反 應 比 預 計 中 的 還 要 好 。 復 活 節 期 間 ， 一 手 市 場 的 每 日 平 均 成 交 量 約 有 八 十 宗 左 右 ， 如 果 平 時 非 假 日 每 日 也 有 這 麼 多 的 成 交 ， 一 手 市 場 一 年 就 可 以 賣 三 萬 個 單 位 ， 足 以 消 化 今 年 的 落 成 量 。 
事 實 上 ， 香 港 的 樓 價 本 已 跌 得 很 平 ， 再 經 肺 炎 事 件 衝 擊 ， 令 樓 價 進 一 步 跌 入 很 多 人 都 可 以 買 得 起 的 水 平 ， 我 相 信 今 後 趁 樓 價 平 去 改 善 生 活 的 人 會 越 來 越 多 。 我 認 識 的 朋 友 之 中 ， 最 近 就 有 不 少 趁 肺 炎 事 件 想 執 平 貨 ， 反 映 市 場 的 需 求 依 然 存 在 。 我 相 信 ， 香 港 的 樓 市 ， 經 今 次 考 驗 ， 反 可 測 試 到 支 持 位 何 在 ， 以 後 可 以 在 這 個 基 礎 上 逐 步 回 升 ， 大 家 可 不 用 過 份 悲 觀 。 
我 估 計 ， 在 未 來 兩 個 星 期 裏 ， 發 展 商 會 重 新 部 署 開 新 盤 ， 而 且 反 應 將 會 不 錯 ， 第 二 季 餘 下 的 兩 個 月 市 場 氣 氛 可 迅 速 改 善 。