有震撼性回落才會見底

過 去 幾 年 都 有 不 同 的 市 場 評 論 員 在 不 同 的 時 間 預 測 樓 市 已 經 見 底 ， 可 惜 他 們 的 預 測 都 一 一 落 。 這 些 人 的 預 測 並 非 毫 無 根 據 ， 譬 如 說 ， 從 用 家 的 角 度 來 看 ， 樓 價 的 跌 幅 的 確 已 遠 超 經 濟 的 衰 退 ， 令 香 港 的 樓 價 已 可 為 更 多 人 負 擔 得 起 ， 潛 在 的 需 求 理 應 不 少 。 另 一 方 面 ， 從 投 資 者 的 角 度 來 看 ， 樓 價 的 跌 幅 多 過 租 金 的 跌 幅 ， 令 租 金 回 報 率 比 前 上 升 ， 加 上 利 率 的 下 跌 ， 令 租 金 回 報 率 高 過 資 金 成 本 ， 理 應 有 更 多 的 人 樂 意 買 樓 收 租 。 再 者 ， 政 府 已 減 少 土 地 供 應 ， 可 以 預 期 這 個 影 響 一 定 會 在 兩 年 後 出 現 ， 屆 時 樓 宇 的 供 應 一 定 會 跟 著 減 少 ， 而 決 定 價 格 的 始 終 都 是 供 求 關 係 。 
以 上 種 種 都 是 有 憑 有 據 的 利 好 因 素 ， 但 似 乎 市 場 對 這 些 利 好 因 素 都 視 而 不 見 ， 樓 價 不 但 未 見 回 升 ， 反 而 拾 級 而 下 ， 完 全 看 不 到 見 底 的 日 子 。 
有 時 我 想 ， 樓 市 為 什 麼 還 未 見 底 呢 ？ 它 還 在 等 什 麼 呢 ？ 或 許 可 使 樓 市 見 底 的 不 是 要 多 幾 項 好 消 息 ， 而 是 需 要 來 一 次 重 大 的 天 災 人 禍 ， 可 以 來 一 次 徹 底 的 震 倉 ， 令 市 場 上 尚 存 的 好 友 都 信 心 盡 失 ， 把 手 上 的 樓 都 不 問 成 本 地 吐 出 來 。 樓 市 經 此 震 撼 之 後 ， 才 會 有 見 底 的 機 會 。 
現 在 這 個 機 會 終 於 來 臨 ， 伊 拉 克 戰 雲 密 布 ， 香 港 又 受 非 典 型 肺 炎 襲 擊 ， 真 是 禍 不 單 行 。 起 初 以 為 受 影 響 的 主 要 是 旅 遊 、 飲 食 、 娛 樂 、 地 產 之 類 的 行 業 ， 現 在 瑞 士 的 鐘 錶 展 都 不 准 港 商 參 加 ， 而 香 港 搞 的 展 銷 會 ， 海 外 買 家 都 不 敢 來 以 身 試 炎 ， 看 進 出 口 業 都 難 免 不 受 拖 累 ， 今 次 香 港 可 謂 衰 到 盡 了 。 
或 者 就 是 因 為 如 此 ， 近 期 樓 價 已 作 插 水 下 跌 ， 新 界 屋 邨 有 些 不 用 五 十 萬 已 有 交 易 ， 深 圳 河 以 北 亦 不 外 如 是 。 我 相 信 這 將 是 一 次 最 後 的 震 倉 ， 樓 價 可 藉 此 測 試 真 正 的 支 持 位 ， 然 後 在 這 個 基 礎 上 慢 慢 復 甦 。 
我 接 觸 過 一 些 資 深 的 市 場 人 士 ， 其 中 有 不 少 持 我 一 樣 的 睇 法 ， 部 分 更 已 開 始 行 動 ， 出 來 擇 肥 而 噬 。 此 之 所 以 近 期 有 買 豪 宅 的 人 可 以 一 口 氣 連 買 幾 間 ， 而 店 舖 投 資 市 場 亦 交 投 異 常 活 躍 ， 可 見 已 有 人 利 用 這 次 見 底 前 的 震 撼 而 入 市 。