開戰屬好消息

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美 國 終 於 採 取 行 動 空 襲 阿 富 汗 。 港 股 為 此 而 下 跌 三 百 多 點 。 我 覺 得 這 是 非 理 性 表 現 。 9.11事 件 後 ， 美 國 早 已 表 示 會 以 軍 事 行 動 作 報 復 ， 故 開 戰 應 是 人 們 意 料 之 內 的 事 ， 問 題 只 是 何 時 開 戰 吧 了 。 如 果 人 們 對 此 早 已 有 預 期 ， 那 當 時 的 股 價 早 已 反 映 了 開 戰 的 因 素 ， 無 需 再 為 實 際 開 戰 再 向 下 作 太 多 的 調 整 。 執 筆 時 間 是 十 月 九 日 上 午 七 時 ， 港 股 尚 未 開 市 ， 但 我 認 為 ， 港 股 今 日 應 會 反 彈 ， 因 為 昨 天 的 下 跌 是 非 理 性 的 ， 今 天 應 作 修 正 。 
依 我 的 看 法 ， 既 然 遲 早 都 要 開 戰 ， 早 開 應 比 遲 開 好 。 遲 開 ， 緊 張 的 形 勢 就 會 一 直 拖 下 去 ， 全 世 界 的 經 濟 都 會 受 拖 累 。 況 且 ， 在 未 開 戰 之 前 ， 人 們 必 須 作 最 壞 的 打 算 ， 把 一 切 萬 一 會 出 現 的 惡 劣 形 勢 都 作 考 慮 ， 並 為 此 而 有 所 準 備 。 這 樣 ， 開 戰 的 壞 影 響 就 會 被 充 份 擴 大 。 相 反 ， 一 旦 開 戰 ， 人 們 就 可 以 直 接 看 到 開 戰 後 的 現 實 ， 而 不 需 依 靠 想 像 。 人 們 將 看 到 開 戰 亦 不 外 如 是 。 除 了 阿 富 汗 鄰 近 國 家 會 受 到 影 響 之 外 ， 其 他 地 區 ， 尤 其 是 香 港 ， 都 不 會 有 捲 入 戰 爭 的 危 險 ， 生 活 可 以 如 常 進 行 。 
有 人 擔 心 ， 美 國 一 旦 空 襲 阿 富 汗 ， 恐 怖 分 子 就 會 全 面 還 擊 ， 在 美 國 本 土 以 至 在 世 界 各 地 殺 害 美 國 人 。 但 作 這 樣 擔 心 的 人 ， 忘 記 了 恐 佈 份 子 的 本 質 是 處 於 弱 勢 ， 如 非 處 於 弱 勢 ， 他 們 大 可 以 派 航 空 母 艦 及 巡 航 導 彈 去 開 戰 ， 何 苦 要 靠 自 殺 式 襲 擊 。 因 此 ， 恐 佈 份 子 根 本 沒 有 能 力 作 連 續 不 斷 的 大 規 模 恐 佈 襲 擊 。 
恐 佈 份 子 過 去 不 斷 以 這 類 活 動 對 付 以 色 列 ， 但 並 不 成 功 ， 現 在 他 們 想 以 這 樣 的 方 法 對 付 美 國 ， 亦 只 能 造 而 滋 擾 ， 但 不 可 能 對 美 國 的 國 力 造 成 重 大 的 破 壞 。 英 國 就 有 一 段 時 間 長 期 受 北 愛 爾 蘭 恐 佈 份 子 襲 擊 ， 但 這 類 活 動 無 傷 英 國 的 經 濟 發 展 ， 其 他 地 區 更 不 受 影 響 。 
因 此 ， 我 認 為 ， 開 戰 的 後 果 不 會 如 人 們 想 像 中 那 麼 嚴 重 。 人 們 將 看 到 恐 佈 份 子 實 無 力 作 大 規 模 還 擊 ， 而 美 國 大 力 教 訓 塔 利 班 政 權 後 ， 其 他 國 家 都 會 收 緊 國 內 恐 佈 份 子 活 動 的 空 間 ， 以 免 成 為 美 國 的 報 復 對 象 。 
如 果 能 達 至 以 上 目 標 ， 美 國 就 不 宜 在 阿 富 汗 拖 下 去 。 前 蘇 聯 入 侵 阿 富 汗 時 ， 不 需 一 星 期 就 攻 陷 首 都 ， 取 代 了 原 阿 富 汗 政 權 。 蘇 聯 只 是 因 為 要 扶 植 親 蘇 政 權 才 被 拖 死 。 美 國 今 次 如 果 肯 放 棄 扶 植 傀 儡 政 權 ， 推 翻 塔 利 班 政 權 之 後 就 走 ， 不 再 理 會 將 來 的 政 權 是 親 巴 還 是 親 俄 ， 那 戰 爭 將 會 很 快 結 束 。 
即 使 美 國 不 夠 聰 明 ， 被 拖 住 不 能 脫 身 ， 這 也 將 是 一 場 局 部 戰 爭 ， 不 可 能 進 一 步 擴 大 。 人 們 將 很 快 適 應 新 環 境 。 阿 富 汗 沒 有 大 國 支 持 ， 阿 富 汗 戰 爭 的 規 模 不 會 大 過 朝 鮮 戰 爭 與 越 南 戰 爭 ， 甚 至 連 以 阿 富 汗 抗 蘇 戰 爭 的 規 模 也 比 不 上 。 香 港 人 過 去 未 因 這 類 戰 爭 而 不 能 生 活 下 去 ， 將 來 也 有 能 力 適 應 新 的 環 境 。 有 本 事 的 ， 還 可 能 有 機 會 發 戰 爭 財 ， 且 看 香 港 人 怎 樣 走 位 了 。
9.11事 件 他 們 前 後 準 備 了 五 年 有 多 ， 怎 可 能 立 即 反 擊 。 因 此 ， 即 使 他 們 很 想 報 復 ， 也 只 能 作 一 些 零 星 的 小 反 擊 ， 害 不 了 大 事 。