八月先見低位後回升

踏 入 八 月 份 ， 市 場 瀰 漫 著 一 種 悲 觀 的 氣 氛 。 經 過 六 月 及 七 月 頭 一 輪 旺 市 的 消 耗 ， 市 場 的 需 求 好 像 已 失 去 後 繼 能 力 。 一 些 曾 在 六 月 份 非 常 有 效 的 促 銷 方 法 ， 現 在 已 失 去 對 買 家 的 吸 引 力 。 一 手 市 場 平 均 每 日 的 銷 量 只 及 六 月 高 峰 時 的 一 半 左 右 。 出 現 這 個 現 象 的 原 因 ， 是 六 月 份 主 要 是 旺 一 手 市 場 ， 動 力 來 自 發 展 商 新 推 出 的 優 惠 付 款 辦 法 ， 而 非 真 的 市 場 的 總 需 求 增 長 了 很 多 。 所 以 ， 當 買 家 被 吸 引 到 一 手 市 場 之 後 ， 二 手 市 場 的 交 投 量 立 即 萎 縮 起 來 。 交 投 一 少 ， 急 賣 的 小 業 主 只 好 減 價 去 和 一 手 市 場 的 優 惠 付 款 辦 法 去 競 爭 。 此 之 所 以 中 原 城 市 領 先 指 數 ， 最 近 曾 出 現 過 兩 次 新 低 ， 反 映 二 手 市 場 的 樓 價 仍 在 普 遍 下 落 。 二 手 市 場 的 價 格 回 落 之 後 ， 一 手 市 場 原 先 的 促 銷 方 法 就 逐 漸 失 去 吸 引 力 ， 以 至 一 手 市 場 的 銷 售 量 又 再 全 面 回 落 ， 相 信 八 月 份 發 展 商 又 得 想 辦 法 來 促 銷 了 。 
在 這 種 形 勢 下 ， 我 估 計 八 月 份 樓 市 會 先 見 低 位 ， 然 後 才 能 回 升 。 會 先 見 低 位 的 說 法 不 難 令 人 相 信 ， 因 為 當 前 的 趨 勢 確 實 如 是 ， 不 少 市 區 的 熱 門 大 屋 村 最 近 都 錄 得 新 低 價 的 成 交 ， 而 且 情 況 還 在 漫 延 ， 所 以 市 場 人 士 對 樓 市 可 能 出 現 新 的 低 位 都 已 有 心 理 準 備 ， 但 並 非 人 人 都 相 信 八 月 見 低 位 後 仍 會 回 升 。 
我 相 信 八 月 份 樓 市 不 至 於 急 轉 直 下 的 原 因 ， 是 市 場 對 七 月 份 樓 價 出 現 新 低 都 非 常 冷 感 ， 沒 有 引 發 新 一 輪 的 拋 售 潮 。 這 表 示 現 時 賣 樓 的 人 主 要 是 自 住 的 業 主 ， 而 非 持 貨 的 炒 家 ， 他 們 因 實 際 的 需 要 而 賣 樓 ， 而 不 是 因 某 個 消 息 而 賣 樓 。 這 使 我 相 信 二 手 市 場 的 供 應 已 穩 定 下 來 ， 不 會 一 時 多 一 時 少 。 因 此 ， 當 一 手 市 場 失 去 吸 引 力 ， 買 家 重 回 二 手 市 場 後 ， 二 手 市 場 很 快 可 以 站 穩 ， 不 會 無 休 止 地 下 滑 落 去 。 事 實 上 ， 近 日 二 手 市 場 的 活 動 已 有 增 加 之 勢 ， 因 此 ， 樓 市 不 難 在 八 月 上 半 月 就 找 到 支 持 位 。 
另 一 個 令 我 對 後 市 仍 保 持 一 定 信 心 的 原 因 是 ， 利 息 還 會 進 一 步 回 落 ， 而 銀 行 間 的 競 爭 亦 未 完 結 ， 因 此 八 月 份 得 繼 續 出 現 有 利 買 家 入 市 的 新 環 境 。 
有 人 可 能 認 為 ， 今 年 裏 已 減 息 多 次 ， 都 不 見 得 對 樓 市 有 太 大 的 刺 激 ， 樓 價 一 樣 屢 創 新 低 。 我 同 意 ， 減 息 至 今 為 止 都 未 能 改 變 樓 市 下 滑 的 趨 勢 ， 但 我 不 同 意 減 息 沒 有 效 用 的 說 法 。 因 為 減 息 可 以 實 質 上 令 供 樓 的 成 本 減 輕 ， 令 有 資 格 踏 入 有 買 樓 能 力 的 人 增 加 ， 對 增 加 需 求 方 面 必 會 起 作 用 ， 問 題 是 這 種 作 用 要 積 累 到 什 麼 程 度 才 能 改 變 市 勢 吧 了 。 
現 時 租 金 回 報 率 只 有 四 厘 ， 貸 款 利 率 則 要 四 厘 半 ， 仍 是 租 抵 過 供 ， 但 如 果 貸 款 利 率 再 跌 半 厘 就 可 以 與 租 金 回 報 率 拉 平 ， 如 果 貸 款 利 率 跌 超 過 半 厘 ， 那 人 們 的 在 租 與 賣 的 取 捨 上 就 會 完 全 改 觀 。 有 人 擔 心 ， 美 國 減 息 不 一 定 會 再 減 那 麼 多 ， 但 我 認 為 即 使 美 國 不 減 息 ， 銀 行 間 的 競 爭 也 會 促 使 銀 行 這 樣 做 。 因 此 ， 供 樓 抵 過 租 樓 的 日 子 遲 早 會 到 來 。 
事 實 上 ， 由 於 按 揭 利 率 下 跌 ， 部 分 租 客 的 取 態 已 在 改 變 ， 以 中 原 自 己 促 成 的 生 意 來 分 析 ， 二 零 零 一 年 上 半 年 我 們 促 成 了 7784宗 買 賣 生 意 ， 比 二 零 零 零 年 上 半 年 的 6209宗 多 了 25.3%。 另 一 方 面 ， 在 租 賃 生 意 上 ， 二 零 零 一 年 上 半 年 我 們 只 促 成 了 6255宗 ， 比 二 零 零 零 年 上 半 年 的 6757宗 少 了 7.4%。 此 起 彼 落 的 情 況 顯 示 人 們 的 取 態 正 在 改 善 。 現 時 這 種 改 變 的 幅 度 好 像 還 很 不 足 夠 ， 但 只 要 這 種 趨 勢 持 續 ， 樓 市 最 終 都 會 見 底 回 升 。