新盤增加優惠 一手市場轉旺

自 從 發 展 商 發 覺 ， 零 首 期 及 頭 兩 三 年 部 份 樓 款 可 以 免 供 對 買 家 有 吸 引 力 之 後 ， 六 月 份 新 開 的 樓 盤 大 都 採 用 了 這 類 付 款 優 惠 ， 方 法 是 ﹝ i﹞ 透 過 銀 行 以 現 金 回 贈 貸 款 申 請 者 ， 金 額 超 過 首 期 付 款 ， 令 買 家 不 單 可 收 回 首 期 付 款 ， 甚 至 還 有 額 外 的 現 金 落 袋 ； ﹝ ii﹞ 為 部 分 樓 款 安 排 二 按 ， 但 三 年 後 才 計 息 供 款 ， 令 買 家 頭 三 年 的 供 樓 負 擔 大 大 減 少 ， 容 易 渡 過 當 前 的 經 濟 低 潮 。 用 這 樣 優 惠 作 吸 引 的 好 處 ， 是 不 用 直 接 去 降 低 樓 價 作 吸 引 ， 對 樓 市 的 氣 氛 不 會 有 太 大 的 破 壞 。 否 則 ， 買 家 一 見 樓 價 下 跌 ， 反 而 不 放 心 入 市 ， 但 事 實 上 ， 近 期 一 手 盤 雖 然 好 銷 ， 價 位 實 際 上 是 較 前 回 落 了 ， 可 以 這 麼 說 ， 近 期 每 一 次 新 盤 熱 潮 ， 都 是 靠 發 展 商 作 出 實 際 犧 牲 才 推 動 起 來 的 ， 而 非 由 需 求 增 加 引 發 出 來 的 。 
由 此 ， 每 當 一 手 盤 好 銷 時 ， 二 手 市 場 就 會 顯 得 較 為 淡 靜 。 市 場 上 的 需 求 並 没有 實 質 上 的 增 幅 ， 當 買 家 去 了 買 一 手 時 ， 流 入 二 手 市 場 的 買 家 自 然 少 了 。 要 等 到 出 現 以 下 這 種 情 況 ： 即 使 發 展 商 不 推 出 新 的 優 惠 辦 法 ， 市 場 也 自 動 暢 旺 起 來 ， 這 才 能 反 映 市 勢 真 正 轉 強 。 
因 此 ， 我 們 在 觀 察 市 況 時 ， 不 能 只 著 眼 於 某 個 新 盤 是 否 好 銷 ， 而 要 看 流 入 市 場 ﹝ 包 括 一 二 手 市 場 ﹞ 的 資 金 有 没有 增 加 ， 要 等 到 敢 於 買 樓 的 整 體 人 數 增 加 時 ， 才 可 以 肯 定 樓 市 已 經 轉 勢 。 近 年 的 形 勢 ， 還 是 每 隔 一 段 時 間 ， 發 展 商 就 得 推 出 一 項 新 的 優 惠 方 法 去 吸 引 買 家 ， 當 這 批 買 家 消 耗 掉 時 ， 發 展 商 又 得 另 謀 他 法 。 如 果 樓 市 還 是 以 這 種 模 式 持 續 下 去 ， 就 得 難 真 正 復 甦 。 
然 而 ， 近 月 的 情 況 似 在 醖 讓 改 變 ， 自 從 五 月 份 再 減 息 半 厘 後 ， 供 樓 成 本 已 越 來 越 接 近 租 樓 成 本 ， 個 別 舊 苑 的 中 小 型 單 位 ， 更 已 出 現 供 樓 比 租 樓 更 化 算 的 情 況 。 因 此 ， 我 們 已 開 始 見 到 有 租 客 轉 而 買 樓 的 情 況 。 可 惜 ， 這 種 態 度 的 轉 變 還 處 於 一 種 萌 芽 狀 態 ， 還 未 形 成 一 種 普 遍 的 趨 勢 。 希 望 本 週 美 國 再 減 一 次 息 之 後 ， 會 有 更 多 的 原 先 選 擇 租 樓 的 人 改 為 選 擇 買 樓 。 只 要 這 種 心 態 上 的 轉 變 能 持 續 下 去 ， 樓 市 才 有 復 甦 的 機 會 。