是小陽春還是真復甦

雖 然 近 日 出 來 買 樓 的 人 多 了 ， 但 就 我 接 觸 ， 不 少 人 心 裏 仍 有 疑 慮 ； 就 是 擔 心 今 次 農 曆 年 後 的 交 投 活 躍 只 是 另 一 次 小 陽 春 ， 無 需 多 久 ， 樓 市 又 會 掉 頭 回 落 ， 現 時 入 市 只 會 自 招 損 失 。 人 們 有 這 樣 的 擔 憂 是 很 自 然 的 ， 因 為 過 去 三 年 ， 農 曆 年 後 的 小 陽 春 最 終 都 只 是 一 場 空 歡 喜 ， 人 們 不 能 不 有 所 警 惕 。 
傳 統 上 的 小 陽 春 ， 多 是 季 節 性 因 素 造 成 的 。 由 聖 誕 節 到 農 曆 年 ， 有 一 連 串 的 假 期 ， 不 少 人 都 趁 這 段 時 間 回 鄉 探 親 或 出 外 旅 遊 ， 沒 有 餘 閒 去 處 理 置 業 問 題 。 故 這 段 期 間 市 場 會 積 累 起 一 定 的 購 買 力 ， 待 農 曆 年 過 後 一 下 子 爆 發 出 來 ， 於 是 就 形 成 了 小 陽 春 。 然 而 ， 當 這 些 積 累 起 來 的 購 買 力 被 消 化 後 ， 市 場 又 被 打 回 原 形 。 
不 過 ， 今 次 的 情 況 有 所 不 同 。 今 次 除 了 有 季 節 性 的 因 素 外 ， 市 場 上 還 出 現 了 不 少 新 的 利 好 因 素 ， 而 這 些 因 素 很 多 還 是 有 很 長 的 持 續 性 影 響 力 的 。 
譬 如 ， 利 息 的 回 落 起 碼 還 會 持 續 半 年 的 時 間 ， 而 租 金 的 回 升 則 起 碼 持 續 兩 三 年 ， 至 於 土 地 供 應 的 減 少 ， 其 實 由 九 八 年 已 開 始 ， 不 過 要 等 它 轉 化 成 樓 宇 的 供 應 量 減 少 ， 要 過 了 今 年 才 會 變 成 事 實 ， 不 過 當 樓 宇 供 應 量 減 少 後 ， 要 增 加 供 應 同 樣 需 要 等 三 數 年 。 
因 此 ， 可 以 預 期 ， 以 上 那 些 利 好 因 素 ， 將 會 在 一 段 相 當 長 的 時 間 裏 ， 都 可 以 在 市 場 上 發 揮 作 用 。 低 息 會 不 斷 吸 引 人 選 擇 供 樓 ， 租 金 趨 升 會 不 斷 阻 嚇 人 選 擇 租 樓 ， 因 此 今 年 租 多 買 少 的 情 況 應 會 逆 轉 。 加 上 未 來 樓 宇 供 應 減 少 ， 遲 買 可 能 會 面 對 價 錢 進 一 步 上 升 的 壓 力 。 在 這 種 情 況 下 ， 小 陽 春 應 有 條 件 慢 慢 轉 化 成 一 次 真 的 復 甦 。 
去 年 二 手 市 場 的 租 買 比 例 是 七 三 分 ， 選 擇 買 樓 的 人 只 佔 三 成 左 右 。 如 果 以 上 的 利 好 因 素 足 以 令 今 年 的 租 買 比 例 變 成 五 五 分 ， 選 擇 買 樓 的 人 就 可 以 由 三 成 變 成 五 成 ， 增 幅 高 達 66%， 買 賣 市 場 將 因 此 而 大 大 活 躍 起 來 。 有 交 投 量 作 支 持 ， 價 格 不 難 見 底 回 升 ， 故 我 對 今 年 樓 市 可 以 正 式 復 甦 是 滿 有 信 心 的 。