前線怨我 太過保守

股 市 狂 升 時 ， 樓 市 並 未 因 而 被 帶 起 ， 故 今 次 股 市 出 現 的 大 調 整 ， 對 樓 市 亦 不 見 得 有 什 麼 重 大 的 衝 擊 。 以 剛 過 去 的 星 期 六 日 的 情 況 來 看 ， 睇 樓 意 欲 依 然 高 漲 。 大 部 分 營 業 員 都 早 已 被 二 手 市 場 的 顧 客 預 約 ， 以 至 沒 有 多 少 人 手 可 以 派 出 去 守 那 些 一 手 樓 的 地 盤 ， 反 映 最 近 市 場 的 焦 點 已 經 從 回 二 手 市 場 。 
據 前 線 的 同 事 反 映 ， 經 過 十 一 月 與 十 二 月 相 對 較 快 的 清 貨 ， 豪 宅 及 甲 級 寫 字 樓 市 場 已 出 現 貨 疏 的 現 象 ， 即 是 說 好 盤 口 已 買 少 見 少 ， 剩 下 來 的 要 不 是 質 素 欠 佳 ， 就 是 價 錢 貴 得 不 合 理 ， 故 做 價 已 開 始 上 升 。 
這 種 情 況 看 來 還 在 進 一 步 擴 散 ， 除 豪 宅 與 甲 級 寫 字 樓 外 ， 市 區 大 屋 村 、 以 及 新 界 有 地 鐵 到 的 新 市 鎮 、 市 場 的 活 動 量 都 在 大 幅 增 加 。 以 荃 灣 的 綠 楊 新 村 為 例 ， 一 個 月 前 價 位 尚 徘 徊 於 二 千 尾 三 千 頭 一 呎 之 間 ， 但 最 近 三 千 以 下 已 無 盤 供 應 ， 平 均 價 格 已 升 至 三 千 五 水 平 。 日 前 ， 我 們 剛 促 成 了 一 個 優 質 單 位 ， 做 價 更 達 三 千 八 百 元 一 呎 。 
因 此 ， 前 線 同 事 對 後 市 的 估 計 一 般 都 比 我 樂 觀 。 我 原 先 估 計 ， 2000 年 的 樓 價 升 幅 會 在 百 分 之 十 之 內 ， 但 他 們 認 為 單 第 一 季 的 升 幅 可 能 就 不 只 這 個 水 平 。 他 們 希 望 我 收 回 原 先 的 估 計 ， 從 新 作 出 更 樂 觀 的 預 測 。 他 們 說 ， 如 果 顧 客 參 照 我 的 估 計 在 市 場 搵 樓 ， 一 定 不 肯 追 價 ， 件 件 貨 都 好 像 買 不 落 手 ， 最 後 累 客 人 走 失 機 會 。 
我 答 應 會 密 切 留 意 他 們 所 指 出 的 一 切 情 況 ， 但 目 前 市 場 的 表 現 尚 不 平 均 ， 有 率 先 起 步 的 地 區 ， 亦 有 未 見 反 應 的 地 區 ， 我 希 望 多 觀 察 一 個 時 期 才 下 結 論 。 現 時 ， 整 體 市 場 的 交 投 量 仍 不 足 夠 大 市 場 作 較 持 久 的 升 勢 ， 我 希 望 等 每 月 成 交 量 有 機 會 靠 近 一 萬 宗 水 平 時 ， 才 重 新 檢 討 ， 調 整 我 的 預 測 。 如 果 我 之 前 的 估 計 証 明 與 市 況 不 符 ， 我 一 定 會 勇 於 修 正 的 。