靜市中仍有積極因素

賣 地 成 績 不 如 預 期 ， 有 人 因 為 引 伸 說 今 次 施 政 報 告 對 樓 市 的 影 響 是 負 面 的 。 我 不 同 意 這 種 看 法 。 無 疑 ， 施 政 報 告 的 發 表 未 足 以 扭 轉 短 期 樓 市 的 頹 勢 ， 但 這 不 等 於 施 政 報 告 對 地 產 的 長 遠 影 響 是 負 面 的 。 
短 期 而 言 ， 由 於 樓 價 尚 在 下 試 支 持 位 ， 一 般 人 都 會 採 取 觀 望 的 態 度 ， 故 市 場 上 的 交 投 多 不 起 來 。 而 發 展 商 在 新 盤 銷 售 不 理 想 的 情 況 下 ， 自 然 亦 不 會 熱 衷 在 拍 賣 場 上 爭 奪 土 地 。 如 果 樓 價 未 跌 定 ， 即 是 說 將 來 或 有 機 會 買 到 更 平 的 單 位 ， 那 自 以 為 懂 得 精 打 細 算 的 香 港 人 自 然 傾 向 遲 些 時 候 才 入 市 。 
但 長 遠 一 點 來 看 ， 一 些 基 本 因 素 卻 正 在 向 有 利 於 樓 市 的 方 向 發 展 。 
首 先 ， 施 政 報 告 反 映 政 府 對 揭 抑 樓 價 的 取 向 改 變 了 。 政 府 已 了 解 樓 價 下 跌 所 產 生 的 負 面 影 響 ， 並 正 在 設 法 把 資 源 引 回 私 人 樓 宇 市 場 ， 譬 如 減 建 居 屋 ， 改 以 置 業 貸 款 來 代 替 。 短 期 裏 這 當 然 不 容 易 看 到 效 果 ， 因 為 今 明 來 年 仍 是 居 屋 入 伙 的 高 峰 期 ， 但 長 遠 而 言 ， 這 會 令 私 人 樓 宇 的 投 資 吸 引 力 增 加 。 
其 次 ， 第 二 季 經 濟 已 出 現 正 增 長 ， 估 計 下 半 年 的 經 濟 增 長 更 可 以 有 百 分 二 左 右 。 如 果 這 種 趨 勢 持 續 ， 市 民 的 購 樓 能 力 將 會 逐 步 增 加 。 以 家 庭 入 息 的 中 位 數 與 一 間 中 小 型 樓 宇 的 每 月 供 款 作 比 較 ， 現 時 已 是 近 八 年 裏 市 民 供 樓 能 力 最 強 的 日 子 。 現 在 市 場 淡 靜 ， 應 是 心 理 影 響 的 因 素 多 於 購 買 力 不 足 的 因 素 。 所 以 ， 一 旦 心 理 因 素 逆 轉 ， 釋 放 出 來 的 購 買 力 將 非 常 龐 大 ， 而 經 濟 持 續 增 長 將 會 加 快 心 理 因 素 逆 轉 的 日 子 早 日 到 來 。 
再 者 ， 近 日 租 賃 市 場 已 出 現 求 過 於 供 的 現 象 ， 租 金 已 見 底 回 升 。 如 果 更 多 的 人 選 擇 租 樓 而 不 買 樓 的 話 ， 租 金 的 升 勢 就 會 加 快 ， 使 租 樓 者 要 面 對 租 約 期 滿 後 可 能 又 要 加 租 的 壓 力 。 市 場 就 會 出 現 一 種 自 然 的 平 衡 ， 令 部 份 租 客 重 新 轉 而 選 擇 買 樓 。 
加 上 ， 現 在 港 元 幣 值 已 相 對 穩 定 ， 持 有 港 元 資 產 的 風 險 已 遠 比 金 融 風 暴 高 峰 期 低 。 出 現 去 年 八 九 月 般 的 惡 劣 環 境 的 機 會 已 不 存 在 。 樓 價 即 使 再 跌 ， 幅 度 亦 不 會 太 大 。 
因 此 ， 我 看 目 前 的 淡 市 應 是 短 期 性 的 ， 一 些 長 遠 的 基 本 因 素 反 在 不 斷 改 善 ， 故 不 宜 對 後 市 完 全 絕 望 。 
事 實 証 明 ， 很 多 時 多 數 人 的 認 識 反 是 錯 誤 的 ， 譬 如 九 七 年 中 以 前 ， 人 人 看 好 樓 市 ， 能 抵 受 得 住 利 潤 引 誘 而 不 入 市 的 才 是 高 明 的 人 。 現 在 ， 大 多 數 人 都 看 淡 ， 他 們 這 種 取 態 當 然 左 右 著 短 期 的 市 況 ， 但 作 長 遠 部 署 的 人 ， 則 不 應 受 短 期 的 市 場 情 緒 所 擺 佈 。