不跌難升

踏 入 七 月 份 ， 樓 市 的 交 投 量 依 然 非 常 淡 靜 。 個 別 經 紀 曾 在 七 月 頭 說 樓 市 的 交 投 量 比 六 月 增 加 了 一 成 有 多 ， 可 能 只 是 把 帝 濤 灣 開 盤 的 效 應 一 併 誤 讀 了 。 對 於 有 機 會 參 與 做 一 手 盤 的 經 紀 ， 月 初 時 的 佣 金 收 入 確 增 加 了 ， 但 對 於 那 些 沒 有 被 發 展 商 委 託 代 理 一 手 盤 的 代 理 來 說 ， 七 月 的 生 意 明 顯 比 六 月 還 要 差 。 很 多 細 經 紀 都 擔 心 ， 如 果 長 此 下 去 ， 地 產 代 理 行 業 可 能 面 臨 新 一 輪 的 收 縮 。 即 使 那 些 規 模 較 大 的 、 曾 經 揚 言 要 在 下 半 年 再 擴 展 分 行 的 代 理 行 ， 可 能 亦 需 要 重 新 調 整 自 己 的 策 略 部 署 了 。 其 實 ， 單 從 表 面 上 看 ， 七 月 份 的 市 場 氣 氛 並 不 差 。 美 國 加 息 四 分 之 一 厘 後 ， 聯 邦 儲 備 局 明 確 表 示 ， 短 期 裏 沒 有 再 加 息 的 需 要 。 這 大 大 減 輕 了 市 場 對 加 息 的 憂 慮 ， 美 國 股 市 因 此 而 再 創 新 高 ， 本 港 股 市 亦 受 感 染 ， 破 了 金 融 風 暴 以 來 的 高 位 ， 投 資 市 場 的 氣 氛 非 常 樂 觀 。 但 不 知 為 了 什 麼 ， 在 一 遍 利 好 的 氣 氛 下 ， 樓 市 依 然 不 為 所 動 ， 價 位 雖 然 基 本 上 守 得 住 ， 但 成 交 量 卻 進 一 步 減 縮 ， 出 現 了 成 交 量 與 市 場 氣 氛 背 馳 的 情 況 。 
出 現 這 種 情 況 的 主 要 原 因 ， 是 當 前 樓 市 的 主 要 買 家 是 用 家 ， 不 是 投 資 者 ， 他 們 對 金 融 市 場 的 消 息 並 不 太 敏 感 ； 相 反 ， 由 於 大 部 分 人 的 經 濟 情 況 在 這 段 時 間 都 沒 有 什 麼 改 善 ， 所 以 他 們 對 樓 價 的 高 低 就 非 常 敏 感 ， 升 高 了 一 點 就 不 願 再 追 。 
樓 市 自 去 年 第 四 季 反 彈 以 來 ， 已 升 了 十 至 十 五 個 百 分 比 ， 對 於 用 家 來 說 ， 他 們 覺 得 升 幅 已 不 算 少 ， 心 裏 存 在 著 待 樓 價 回 落 時 再 買 的 期 望 ， 故 入 市 意 欲 不 積 極 。 他 們 的 基 本 觀 點 是 ： 樓 價 從 低 位 上 升 十 至 十 五 個 百 分 點 只 屬 一 種 技 術 性 反 彈 ， 並 不 代 表 樓 市 可 以 重 納 上 升 軌 ， 今 後 樓 市 仍 會 在 低 位 爭 持 ， 不 愁 沒 有 機 會 買 到 平 樓 。 因 此 ， 樓 價 升 少 少 他 們 就 不 願 入 市 了 。 
在 買 家 的 主 流 心 態 是 這 樣 的 市 場 上 ， 發 展 商 其 實 應 該 放 棄 旺 市 中 常 用 的 那 套 加 推 加 價 的 促 銷 手 法 。 不 應 再 以 為 一 加 價 就 可 以 逼 買 家 及 早 入 市 ， 今 天 的 買 家 已 不 相 信 遲 買 會 貴 ， 以 及 遲 買 可 能 買 不 到 這 類 恐 嚇 了 。 發 展 商 應 設 法 摸 透 買 家 可 以 接 受 的 價 錢 ， 然 後 就 以 這 個 價 錢 盡 量 推 貨 。 事 實 已 多 次 證 明 ， 加 推 加 價 的 結 果 是 銷 情 驟 然 停 頓 ， 貨 尾 長 時 間 賣 不 清 。 
同 樣 情 況 ， 做 代 理 的 也 不 要 以 為 ， 一 味 唱 好 個 市 ， 買 家 就 會 追 貨 ， 要 知 道 現 在 仍 是 熊 市 而 非 牛 市 ， 唱 得 太 好 的 結 果 只 是 令 賣 方 增 加 不 切 實 際 的 幻 想 ， 並 令 買 家 抗 拒 入 市 。 
我 在 六 月 初 已 指 出 樓 價 需 要 回 落 ， 再 度 下 試 低 位 的 支 持 力 ， 低 位 試 不 穿 才 有 新 的 動 力 去 上 試 高 位 。 結 果 大 部 分 行 家 都 持 相 反 的 意 見 ， 認 為 經 紀 不 唱 好 個 市 怎 有 生 意 做 ？ 結 果 市 好 像 唱 好 了 ， 生 意 卻 減 少 。 反 而 ， 如 果 六 月 份 市 場 預 作 調 整 的 話 ， 上 面 就 有 空 間 留 給 有 好 消 息 出 時 上 升 。 現 在 樓 價 已 頂 到 上 頂 ， 根 本 沒 有 空 間 去 升 。 等 如 一 個 人 如 果 想 跳 高 ， 就 需 要 先 蹲 低 ， 不 肯 蹲 低 ， 以 為 這 會 與 目 標 距 離 拉 遠 ， 就 一 定 無 法 跳 高 ， 這 叫 做 欲 揚 先 抑 ， 現 在 一 開 始 就 揚 到 盡 ， 就 變 成 欲 揚 無 力 了 。 因 此 ， 我 看 樓 價 還 是 先 向 下 調 整 一 些 ， 今 後 才 有 增 加 交 投 量 的 機 會 。