細碼成交逆市上升

八 月 份 土 地 註 冊 署 登 記 的 二 手 買 賣 依 然 不 多 ， 只 有 四 千 餘 宗 ， 比 高 峰 期 動 輒 過 萬 宗 的 交 易 少 了 六 、 七 成 ， 顯 示 換 樓 活 動 依 然 疲 弱 。 不 過 市 場 看 來 並 非 全 面 萎 縮 。 如 果 以 不 同 的 價 目 去 分 類 ， 二 百 萬 以 下 的 成 交 有 明 顯 的 增 長 。 七 月 份 二 手 市 場 上 二 百 萬 以 下 的 交 易 有 二 千 五 百 四 十 一 宗 ， 佔 了 整 個 二 手 市 場 的 六 成 。 這 與 高 峰 期 時 ， 二 百 萬 以 下 的 交 易 不 足 市 場 四 成 的 情 況 相 差 很 遠 。 統 計 數 字 顯 示 ， 樓 價 越 高 ， 市 場 萎 縮 的 程 度 越 大 ， 豪 宅 的 成 交 量 跌 得 比 整 個 市 場 還 要 多 。 細 銀 碼 的 交 投 逆 市 上 升 有 兩 方 面 的 原 因 。 其 一 是 統 計 分 類 時 技 術 原 因 造 成 的 ， 由 於 樓 價 下 跌 ， 自 然 有 更 多 的 成 交 落 入 這 個 類 別 ， 令 統 計 數 字 增 長 。 其 二 是 因 為 近 期 入 市 的 主 要 是 首 次 置 業 人 仕 。 他 們 是 社 會 上 最 迫 切 需 要 住 屋 的 人 ， 不 似 換 樓 的 人 ， 已 有 樓 住 ， 忍 一 忍 等 形 勢 明 朗 化 後 再 買 也 沒 所 謂 。 首 次 置 業 者 一 般 能 力 有 限 ， 買 的 都 是 細 碼 單 位 ， 以 至 令 細 碼 單 位 的 成 交 可 以 逆 市 增 長 。 
我 相 信 ， 由 於 樓 價 持 續 下 跌 ， 已 令 越 來 越 多 的 人 達 到 買 樓 資 格 。 這 批 人 以 前 可 能 從 未 想 過 可 以 買 樓 ， 這 對 他 們 產 生 的 引 誘 可 能 比 樓 價 下 跌 的 顧 慮 還 大 ， 所 以 現 時 入 市 的 主 要 是 這 批 人 ， 他 們 買 的 亦 主 要 是 細 碼 單 位 。 
現 時 ， 一 間 一 百 二 十 萬 的 單 位 可 以 有 四 百 多 呎 ， 一 個 小 家 庭 已 夠 用 。 買 家 付 三 十 六 萬 首 期 後 ， 只 需 向 銀 行 做 八 十 四 萬 按 揭 已 可 入 伙 。 入 住 後 月 供 不 足 一 萬 元 ， 一 個 小 家 庭 ， 如 果 公 一 份 婆 一 份 ， 有 二 萬 元 家 庭 入 息 已 有 條 件 買 樓 。 所 以 這 類 單 位 的 需 求 會 越 來 越 多 ， 將 來 樓 市 如 果 要 見 底 的 話 ， 應 先 會 從 這 類 單 位 起 步 ， 大 家 可 以 拭 目 以 待 。