誰在這個時候買樓

有 時 我 覺 得 奇 怪 ， 為 什 麼 在 樓 市 向 下 的 趨 勢 如 此 明 顯 的 時 候 ， 市 場 一 樣 有 人 買 樓 ？  
 
 
 
 
 
 
股 匯 風 暴 以 來 ， 樓 價 亦 急 轉 直 下 ， 市 場 上 的 評 論 一 窩 蜂 地 看 淡 後 市 ， 即 使 到 今 天 還 有 證 券 分 析 員 認 為 樓 價 還 會 再 跌 四 五 成 ， 照 理 由 這 個 時 候 沒 有 人 願 意 買 樓 才 對 ， 但 多 多 少 少 每 月 市 場 上 都 有 六 、 七 千 人 買 樓 ， 不 至 於 全 部 租 樓 ， 無 人 買 樓 。 為 解 決 我 這 個 疑 惑 ， 最 近 我 向 前 線 工 作 的 同 事 作 了 一 次 較 全 面 的 了 解 ， 發 覺 他 們 主 要 是 以 下 幾 類 人 ： 第 一 類 是 首 次 置 業 者 ， 他 們 手 上 未 有 物 業 ， 只 持 有 準 備 買 樓 的 現 金 首 期 ， 因 此 是 今 次 金 融 風 暴 的 得 益 者 ， 樓 價 下 跌 令 他 們 可 以 一 嘗 期 望 已 久 的 做 業 主 滋 味 ， 甚 至 有 條 件 買 得 比 原 先 目 標 更 理 想 的 單 位 。 另 一 方 面 ， 首 次 置 業 者 買 樓 的 逼 切 性 比 換 樓 的 人 強 ， 換 樓 的 人 本 身 已 有 樓 ， 前 景 不 明 朗 時 可 以 忍 一 忍 ， 問 題 不 會 太 大 ， 不 似 那 些 新 婚 要 組 織 新 家 庭 者 ， 非 要 找 個 新 單 位 不 可 。 我 們 發 覺 ， 並 非 所 有 首 次 置 業 的 人 仕 都 是 拿 政 府 的 貸 款 來 買 樓 的 。 據 房 協 公 布 ， 他 們 批 出 的 貸 款 尚 不 足 五 百 個 ， 佔 市 場 的 比 例 不 高 。 沒 有 借 助 政 府 貸 款 的 首 次 置 業 人 仕 ， 往 往 並 非 因 為 他 們 入 息 過 高 ， 超 出 了 政 府 的 規 定 ， 而 是 因 為 居 港 年 期 不 足 。 這 裏 可 以 反 映 出 兩 個 問 題 ： 第 一 ， 即 使 沒 有 首 置 貸 款 計 劃 ， 在 目 前 的 樓 價 水 平 ， 他 們 已 有 能 力 入 市 ， 故 首 置 貸 款 計 劃 可 能 已 不 合 時 宜 ， 需 要 重 新 檢 討 。 第 二 ， 首 置 貸 款 對 市 場 的 影 響 尚 未 全 面 顯 露 出 來 ， 將 來 批 出 的 數 量 更 多 時 ， 有 機 會 對 市 場 造 成 更 大 的 刺 激 。 第 二 類 是 高 峰 期 賣 了 樓 但 尚 未 買 番 的 人 。 九 六 、 九 七 年 間 市 場 共 有 三 十 五 萬 宗 買 賣 ， 其 中 有 很 多 人 可 能 即 時 再 把 資 金 重 投 樓 市 ， 但 仍 有 部 分 不 知 是 因 為 眼 光 獨 到 還 是 樓 價 升 得 太 快 賣 出 後 追 不 及 ， 至 今 仍 未 買 樓 。 現 在 樓 價 跌 了 四 、 五 成 ， 對 他 們 來 說 實 在 非 常 吸 引 。 他 們 只 要 把 賣 樓 收 回 來 的 錢 放 回 市 場 ， 當 自 己 去 年 沒 有 賣 出 過 ， 就 可 以 住 大 一 點 住 靚 一 點 ， 何 樂 而 不 為 。 第 三 類 是 受 金 融 風 暴 衝 擊 較 少 的 行 業 裏 的 人 ， 如 公 務 員 、 教 師 、 醫 務 人 員 、 社 工 等 。 社 會 對 這 類 行 業 的 需 求 並 未 因 金 融 風 暴 而 減 少 ， 因 此 ， 他 們 的 職 業 相 對 穩 定 ， 故 較 敢 於 作 財 務 上 的 承 擔 。 加 上 這 類 行 業 的 僱 主 多 有 住 屋 貸 款 福 利 ， 顧 員 要 買 樓 才 能 享 用 這 類 利 益 。 第 四 類 是 喜 歡 持 不 同 意 見 的 人 ， 人 人 看 淡 時 ， 一 樣 有 人 看 好 。 他 們 是 否 看 錯 我 不 知 道 ， 我 以 往 的 經 驗 真 理 往 往 掌 握 在 小 數 人 手 裏 ， 多 數 人 的 意 見 不 一 定 就 是 正 確 的 。